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아산-SIPRI 동북아 평화협력 구상 컨퍼런스 외교장관 기조연설(영문)
- 아산-SIPRI 동북아 평화협력 구상 컨퍼런스 외교장관 기조연설(영문)
- 저작자 미상 (저작물 2267371 건)
Dr. Hahm Chaibong‚
Director Ian Anthony‚
Professor Moritomo Satoshi‚
Vice President Douglas Paal‚
Distinguished Guests and
Ladies and Gentlemen‚
Dr. Henry Kissinger‚ one of the greatest minds of our times‚ told the Munich Security Conference held in February this year‚ “Asia is more in a position of 19th-century Europe‚ where military conflict is not ruled out.” He went on to say‚ “Between Japan and China‚ the issue for the rest of us is that neither side be tempted to rely on force to settle the issue.”
His concern almost became a reality in less than three months. In May‚ over the East China Sea‚ a Chinese fighter jet and a Japanese reconnaissance plane came within a 30-meter distance from each other‚ narrowly avoiding a mid-air collision. A similar incident occurred again in June.
Confrontations are not only happening in the East China Sea. During the same period‚ in the waters of the South China Sea‚ there have been several cases of physical confrontation between Chinese and Vietnamese vessels‚ which had rarely happened after the Sino-Vietnamese War in 1979.
Conflicts over historical revisionism among neighbors in Northeast Asia are far from dying down.
On top of that comes the threat from North Korea of conducting an additional nuclear test and advancing its nuclear weapons capability. Since North Korea’s announcement in March‚ intensive diplomatic efforts are under way in the international community to cope with various eventualities.
As if the Pandora`s Box has been opened‚ we are now witnessing conflicts or seeds of looming trouble in a whole range of areas‚ starting from history and territories‚ to maritime security‚ airspace and cyberspace‚ arms races‚ and even security concepts. All of these unprecedented conflicts are happening at the same time. Some pundits refer to this trend as the “return of geopolitics” or the “return of history.”
If this trend goes unchecked and continues to persist‚ even the remarkable economic growth that has characterized Asia since the end of the Cold War may be weakened. Moreover‚ and just as Dr. Kissinger astutely cautioned‚ there remains a serious risk of situations in Asia escalating to a military conflict‚ triggered by miscalculations. Please allow me to share my thoughts with you on why such phenomena are occurring in Asia in earnest.
First of all‚ looking at the big picture‚ Asian regional order is now going through a major transformation.
On the horizon is a rising and assertive China‚ a resurgent Japan that seeks a breakdown of the postwar bondage‚ a Russia that is looking east‚ and a North Korea that is desperately pursuing both economic development and nuclear weapons‚ and the United States that is pivoting and rebalancing to Asia. In the process of pursuing their irrespective goals‚ nations in the region are often times tempted to engage more in confrontation than in cooperation.
Second‚ there is a lack of systematic and effective mechanisms to respond to these challenges. More fundamentally‚ however‚ the ‘Trust Deficit’ problem in Asia is worse today than at any other time since the end of the Cold War. Considering that trust is a core factor in promoting cooperation between nations‚ if the situation of a ‘Trust Deficit’ continues‚ then this could become the source of all kinds of problems down the road.
Third‚ in comparison with Europe‚ the mismatch between economic interdependence and political or security cooperation is getting severe in Asia. I call this the ‘Asian Paradox.’ In postwar Europe‚ the deepened economic interdependence generally led to the loosening-up of political and military tensions. However‚ as demonstrated by recent events in Asia‚ high politics is now prevailing over low p
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